Election Betting Guide

Politics is the "Super Bowl" of prediction markets. Here is how to trade it.

1. Ignore the Noise (Twitter)

Social media is an echo chamber. A candidate trending on Twitter does not mean they are winning votes in swing states.

• Strategy: Look at Polling Averages (RealClearPolitics, 538) rather than individual viral tweets.

2. Watch the Swing States

In the US Electoral College, the popular vote doesn't decide the winner. Only a few states matter (PA, WI, MI, AZ, GA).

• Strategy: Don't just bet on "Who will be President?". Look for mispriced arbitrage between "Who will win Pennsylvania?" and the general election market.

3. The "Blue Shift" / "Red Mirage"

Vote counting takes time. Mail-in ballots are often counted last and lean Democratic. In-person votes are counted first and lean Republican.

• Strategy: On election night, if a Republican is leading early, don't panic buy. The "Blue Shift" might catch up later. This volatility is a prime trading opportunity.

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